Will Wii Still Dominate in 2008?

Analysts are funny things. They’re kind of like modern day soothe sayers, predicting what will happen, but instead of determining loves fate they deal with the all-important dollar. The latest prediction from a top analyst in the gaming industry is from Daniel Ernst of Hudson Square Research who believes that the Wii will remain on top for 2008 as well (hooray!). He points out the fact that, unlike the 360 and PS3, the Wii still has a surprisingly large amount of momentum behind it. Ernst gives Hudson Square’s prediction of sales for each console based off sales figures for fiscal year 2008. The company believes that Nintendo is on track to sell 23 million Wiis, while Microsoft will only sell 11.2 million Xbox 360s. Coming in last will be Sony with somewhere around 12.5 million PS3s sold. According to them, the Wii won’t only come in first, but will outsell both the PS3 and 360 combined!

“Microsoft got the jump on the industry with a one-year headstart, but nine months after its the launch, the Nintendo Wii overtook the Xbox 360 on a global basis. While the PS3, has struggled out of the gate, we note that since last fall, the console has been outselling the Xbox 360 in Europe, and in the first two months of this year has even outsold the Xbox 360 on its home turf, in the U.S. (In Japan, overtaking the Xbox 360 was almost immediate). With its strong slate of software scheduled for the coming year, we expect a material acceleration for the PS3 this year, but we believe the Wii will sell more than the PS3 and Xbox 360 combined this year.”

This is a Wii site and as such we’re all big fans of the system, but even I have to wonder how true this can be. Shortage reports are still cropping up, major games are coming out for both the 360 and the PS3, and at some point everyone who wants a Wii is going to own a Wii. I’m no analyst though, so what do I know? Wii Fit is sure to move even more consoles and third parties are starting to produce better and better games for the system, so even with the aforementioned problems we could still see some truly great sales for the Wii. Only time, or the next analyst prediction, will tell.